Chinese fighter intercepts Navy Poseidon

[BridgeTroll]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-china-usa-military-idUSKBN0GS2MZ20140828

[finehoe]

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21613263-after-bad-couple-centuries-china-itching-regain-its-place-world-how-should?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709

[BridgeTroll]

Good article... 

[spuwho]

During the Cold War the Soviets and NATO constantly sniffed each other and by the late 70's they acquired a good sense of protocol about how to behave around each other.

However the PLA never acquired that protocol and so it is back to square one with them. Once we reach a level where both believe it's Ok to sniff on each other as part of the peace, then P-8 flyby will of no consequence.

For the PLA, no one is trying to humiliate them anymore. They got Hong Kong and Macau back peacefully under the agreed treaties. Taiwan is a different situation that again, will just need to be worked out through rational dialog. Not by lobbing missile tests across the strait 2 days before elections.

Yes, everyone including the Japanese agree that what happened in Nanking and Manchuria was wrong.

But exacting penance through military action will not recover a loss of face almost 80 years ago.

One must convince the PLA that face can best be restored through their economic capacities and their ability to dialog on even the most difficult of subjects.

However it is well known that the PLA embraced a new level of military capacity after NATO bombed their embassy in Belgrade during the meltdown of Yugoslavia. Never mind that Chinese intelligence was allowing Serbian intelligence to use their antennas to communicate with the field. The PLA did take that as a direct loss of face and they have vowed not to allow it again.

Their feelings about it are the same as our embassy taking in Tehran when the Shah fell. When you think of it in those terms, then you see why they get worked up.

The dialog with them must continue.

[BridgeTroll]

All that said... detecting and tracking submarines in international waters is SOP for the rest of the world.  Pretty standard stuff.  Better yet... if you don't want your submarines tracked... keep them at home... or make them more undetectable. 

[spuwho]

Agreed. Our sonar tracking network has the Jin subs well documented. Screw profile, magnetic profile, etc. etc.

But we have to keep our data current and that requires updated recon. Hence, more P8 flights. They upgrade, we recon.

[BridgeTroll]

Outstanding article from BBC... describes the actions of the Chinese vs Phillipines and Vietnam.  These claims will boil over one day...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014/newsspec_8701/index.html

Great BBC video!

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/fZgvqE89KvQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/fZgvqE89KvQ</a>


Below... Chinese outpost on Phillipine reef...


Building another...


More...

[BridgeTroll]

A mere year later...

WASHINGTON: What began with a tiny artificial island built by China to stake a concrete claim in the South China Sea is fast on its way to becoming 600 acres of at least seven islands spread across the South China Sea. One of the most impressive is so-called Fiery Cross Island, the permanent structure above complete with an air strip and, perhaps, the ability to permanently station advanced weapon systems there to patrol the skies and seas. Sen. John McCain made a point of asking Director of National Intelligence James Clapper about the Chinese actions just before the end of this morning Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on worldwide threats, calling the Chinese actions a rather dramatic change. DNI Clapper told the SASC this is a worrisome trend of the Chinese because of the tensions this is going to create in the South China Sea. They have been very aggressive about it. The biggest worry about these efforts by the Chinese is that they could base advanced aircraft and ships at some of these locations, trying to enforce their so-called Nine-Dash Line claiming most of the South China Sea. That would grant them the presumptive ability to block international shipping in an area every other country in the region  including the United States.

[spuwho]

The US has been trying to get all parties to sit down and discuss a framwork on the South China Sea. China was being passive aggressive about it until the Phillippines announced a big military buy with the US. China had fit about it and have pretty much accelerated their island grabs ever since.

It will boil over when they start detaching military units there.

The PLAN has been harassing US Navy ships passing through this area when they are alone. They stay clear when a carrier task force comes around however.

[BridgeTroll]

China will soon control one of the worlds busiest shipping lanes...

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/look-how-quickly-china-is-building-its-island-bases-out-1691571576

Look How Quickly China is Building Its Island Bases Out Of Nothing
Tyler Rogoway

China isn't just expanding its military reach into the South China Sea, it's rapidly building completely new islands, and as you'd expect, that's generating plenty of anxiety from the other nations in the neighborhood.
China is taking desolate reefs among the Spratly Islands and building them into man-made bases. Some see this as no more than a navigational headache and a regional issue with little impact. Others, however, believe it's a much more subversive activity, giving China the ability to claim a vast economic exclusion zone where it could control shipping, fishing, energy production, and even air travel over one of the busiest transportation corridors in the world.


Currently, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei lay claim to some part of the Spratly Islands. None of these nations recognize China's claim on any of this territory, nor does the US. But short of a war, what can be done? Some of these emerging islands are already said to be occupied by highly trained Chinese commandos, and China is already building a long-range Coast Guard apparatus to protect their creations, in addition to it rapidly expanding naval forces, which includes a carrier strike group, at its disposal.



China has recently acquired some highly unique naval capabilities that are tailored for island-to-island and sea-to-island logistics, most notably and peculiarly purchasing Zubr Class hovercraft, and a license to produce them indigenously from Ukraine. Between an extremely long-range "Coast Guard" naval capability and the Zubr Class' ability to provide island accessible logistics on an unprecedented scale, it's clear that China is preparing to stake its claim on the Spratly Islands in a long-term, militarized way.

Although China's mainland coast is over 500 miles to the north of the Spratly Islands, China insists it has a cultural and historical claim on the territory. China has proclaimed that their sea-going ancestors discovered the islands long ago, and since then Chinese fisherman have harvested the waters as their own. Many view these claims as possibly relevant when it comes to maintaining China's fishing access in the region, but building artificial territory for strategic purposes is another story.


The reality is that under the UN's Law and Sea Convention, an island, even a small one, gets 12 nautical miles out to sea of territory to call its own and another 200 miles in any direction of mineral and fishing rights. You can imagine that if China has a string of these reefs-turned-sea-base-islands, they can claim a continuous swath of control ranging over hundreds of miles. With proven oil reserves measured in the billions of barrels and trillions of cubic feat of natural gas, China's man-made island chain also could end up greatly offsetting its ferocious appetite for energy, the vast amount of which the Chinese are relegated to importing.


As far as what can be done about China's potentially geopolitical norm-shattering island production campaign, there are few options that don't involve armed confrontation.

Washington has played the issue very softly, mentioning it from time to time, but not doing much in terms of confronting the Chinese on the issue directly. If Washington were to change course, which is possibly under a new Administration, the best way to do so would be to work with neighboring nations to pressure China into making a deal to share the territory in a way that's mutually beneficial. The only question is why would China sign on to such an agreement if it's already highly invested in commandeering the territory and growing its military might far exceeding that of all the nations with claims on the territory combined?


In the end, the US and the rest of the world may only confront China on the issue once Flanker fighter jets are flying from these man-made islands and missile batteries are being installed on them. At that point, short of dabbling in the possibility mutually assured economic destruction, whereby the Chinese could dump US bonds if America were to threaten high tariffs on Chinese goods, or other acts of negative reinforcement, it will probably be too late.

In actuality, China has every reason not to make a deal to share this highly strategic territory with its neighbors, including energy, fishing, shipping and air travel control, and will most likely just rely on the passive threat posed by its massive military as a deterrent against aggression and intervention. The only way to really have a shot at reversing what could be the biggest and most volatile territorial dispute of our time is to engage with China directly on the issue now, before construction on these islands is complete.

Considering how distracted the Obama Administration is with a whole slew of other issues, both external and internal, it's doubtful that this will happen. Meanwhile, the play clock is ticking down, and China is well aware of this.

[spuwho]

Its 1923 all over again. Except its not the Japanese Imperial government looking for natural resources, its the DPRC.

People may have forgotten but the Chinese oil company CNOOC tried to buy US based Union Oil to get access to proven reserves, but Congress didnt like the CNOOC ownership structure (mostly military) and blocked it on national security grounds.

So for the DPRC it really comes down to what is the most readily available resource that isnt already owned or controlled by a nuclear club member? I am jot justifying the acts, just explaining the motives.

The fact that they wont joint venture with anyone says more than the militaristic approach to keeping these islands.

Something bad will happen before its gets adequate attention.

[mbwright]

Nation building with a twist.  Let's not piss off China, since we get so much cheap clothing, and other products.  Sort of a love hate relationship, without benefits.

[BridgeTroll]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/u-s-navy-urges-joint-southeast-asia-patrols-of-south-china-sea

[Gunnar]

Its 1923 all over again. Except its not the Japanese Imperial government looking for natural resources, its the DPRC.

...

Something bad will happen before its gets adequate attention.

Good thing the USA had not outsourced their manufacturing capabilities to Japan and Germany back then....

[finehoe]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-navy-alarmed-at-beijings-great-wall-of-sand-in-south-china-sea/2015/04/01/dda11d76-70d7-4b69-bd87-292bd18f5918_story.html