Author Topic: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda  (Read 11172 times)

ronchamblin

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2016, 08:56:28 AM »

Ron, with respect, I don't understand what you are saying. Can you give it to me in 3 sentences?



dbjax

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2016, 10:32:34 AM »
Stephen - Are you offering a different solution? You're quick to place blame and call names here, and while it might be justified, it doesn't help solve the issue.

Ideally, the pension would be completely funded, and could have been much closer had property tax cuts not happened and the pension fund contributions not been diverted. But they did, and here we are. We still are faced with this issue that must resolved. The question is how:
  • Extend/Divert the $0.005 sales tax as a revenue stream - Spreads out the contributions
  • Raise property taxes - Primarily hits property owners and (tenants by extension)
  • Declare bankruptcy - Decimates the pension even more than what's proposed
  • Something else?

None of these are particularly palatable, yet something has to be done. You don't like the pizza analogy, then how about the movie "127 hours" - How long do you want to stay with your arm smashed under a boulder waiting for help to arrive, realizing that it may never, before you cut it off and move on. (sorry for the spoilers)

Steve

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2016, 10:46:58 AM »
My problem with this (and I haven't made up my mind yet) is that it seems to be the opposite of the principle of compounding interest that all of those financial people drill into the head of every college kid - save and put money there now and watch it grow over time.

Regardless - it's bold to propose a tax increase of any kind less than a year into the job. In contrast, I can't imagine Delayed didn't have the idea for Better Jax during his first term, but he did the politically smart thing by earning the public's trust through sound leadership during his first term (NOTE: In hindsight some of his decisions, particularly regarding downtown didn't pan out great long term but overall the leadership was there and he overall was a good mayor IMO). Then, during his second term he proposed this and it became a legacy project of sorts.

Right now, I can say for sure that if the vote was held tomorrow I'd vote no. I was 17 during the Better Jax vote, but I would have voted for it had I been 18; Delaney sold me on it. Curry needs to sell me on this. He's got until November - I'm all ears.

thelakelander

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2016, 10:52:41 AM »
Right now, I can say for sure that if the vote was held tomorrow I'd vote no. I was 17 during the Better Jax vote, but I would have voted for it had I been 18; Delaney sold me on it. Curry needs to sell me on this. He's got until November - I'm all ears.

I think they are shooting for August instead of November. He's got a tall task ahead of him.  I seriously doubt the average Jaxson can relate to the pension issue.  If this referendum fails, what's the backup plan?

Tacachale

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2016, 10:54:57 AM »
So if we stay on the current funding schedule that cripples the annual budget and has been keeping the city from fulfilling basic functions for 8 years, we'll be almost OK in 29 years? Lol, good to know.

Tachahale, what do you understand that I am not understanding? Please note, I am genuinely asking. I'm not sparring.

The more I read about it, the worst it looks. So, I'm hoping for some enlightenment from supporters of the plan.

The way I'm reading it, We're going into more debt for the pension, and we are opening the door to other debt.  By using our future sales tax revenue as a current asset, we'll attempt to issue bonds for, I guess, not the Jaguars(?), but vital essential city functions.

Pretty much what Mike said - the current payment schedule simply isn't sustainable. We're already paying over $150 million out of the annual budget, and that number will just increase. This obligation is one of the main things that's been crippling the budget for years - why we've seen so many cuts to services and staff. There simply isn't a solution to this that doesn't involve new dedicated revenue, and that means a tax of some kind.

I've argued elsewhere why I think the sales tax idea is better than just raising the property taxes. The main reason is that once it's passed, no future mayor can futz with it again. If we raise the property taxes, a future mayor could just cut them again, and we'd be right back in the same situation we're in now.

dbjax

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2016, 11:24:07 AM »
db.  Thanks for the questions, although I would differ with you on being 'quick' to assign blame.

Ive actually been following this for about 8 years or so and haven't come to the conclusion lightly.

I should have been clearer. My reference to quick in that you're attributing the issue to the "jerk" in office. I'm sure you've been following for some time and it becomes frustrating when you don't see action on things, or action that results in progress. I'm glad that something is being attempted, as opposed to the obfuscation of the last several years.
Bankruptcy isn't really on the table as a result of the pension obligation.  Its not really such a massive problem, and as the paper points out, if we make no changes, the obligation is mostly paid for.  All of our issues must be resolved.  The only difference is whether or not we do them with the same speed and enthusiasm as we do in resolving issues dealing with the Jaguars team.

Yes, the obligation would be paid for, but if you noticed the chart, it would take an additional $50MM+ contribution each year to accomplish this. That money is not able to be used to invest/contribute to things that bring money back into the county (like the Jaguars).
Jville paid a much higher millage rate for generations because we knew that at the end of the day, stuff had to be paid for.

The tax cuts, frankly, should have been rolled back in 2010, when it became apparent that the downturn was going to last for a while and that they had been based on politics and a flawed strategy in the first place.

And the majority don't want to pay more now. But stuff still needs to be paid for - how do we accomplish this? At least this sales tax option is going to the voters. A millage rate increase doesn't need to. I'm all for paying more in property taxes, and I'm sure that many people are, because I know that you can't have a solid quality of life "on the cheap." Everything costs more, we demand progress, but refuse to pay for it.
Something was working and we fixed it even though it wasn't broke.


No argument here, but again, it's the past and cannot be changed. Doesn't make it right or wrong, just is.
This doesn't solve the problem, makes it more expensive, and is being used in the service of one guy's political ideology.

What specifically is his ideology? Have you asked him?

I'm not trying to be belligerent here, just want to listen and learn. There are always more sides to a story than people want to admit and I try hard to see as many as possible.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2016, 11:29:30 AM by dbjax »

Steve

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2016, 11:25:37 AM »
Pretty much what Mike said - the current payment schedule simply isn't sustainable.

I'm certainly agree with that. I just don't know that the plan on the table is the right one.

To be fair, I don't know that it ISN'T the right one either.

fieldafm

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2016, 11:26:14 AM »
I neither campaigned for, nor donated money to Lenny Curry's campaign. However, I did vote for him. Making this a personal issue is ridiculous.

Based on what I understand to be true based on my own study of the pension issue... I am more apt than not to vote in favor of Curry's pension proposal in August. At this point, I'm waiting to see what the final proposal is before I make up my mind 100%.

As to your other hyperbole, its frankly not even worth responding to... you clearly have your agenda.

Quote
but this solution doesn't even pay the actual obligation

That's quite a sensational theory, but it is absolutely without merit.



If anyone wants to have an actual discussion on the pension issue, I'd be glad to participate in a rational conversation.

There is a legitimate debate to be had in regards to how future pension obligations should be paid for. There are essentially four options:

1) The sales tax extension proposed by Curry.

2) Face the very real possibility of municipal bankruptcy.  If you do nothing, this will happen. This option is basically a non-starter.

3) Not pay retirees. See #3: non-starter.

4) Pay for it by drastically increasing property taxes. There are two issues at play here as to a potential hike in property taxes. One is that a small increase will not generate the money needed (any real solution involves a shared pain). There has to be a substantial increase to the millage rate to be able to generate the necessary revenue to pay future pension obligations. Simply rolling back the millage rate to what it was 12 years ago isn't sufficient. Remember, Peyton raised the millage rate twice during the last years of his term. City Council raised the millage rate once during Brown's term. All three of those raises still haven't brought the budget to an even figure, new debt has been taken on to fill gaps during all of those budget cycles.. so that extra money isn't going to be enough to even begin to take a chunk out of the pension obligation.

The other issue is that there is nothing stopping political whims from redirecting that additional ad valorum revenue in future years to pay for other things. That's a very real concern. It's also a concern that former Mayor John Delaney talks about frequently. Delaney is someone that spent decades operating within the same political apparatus, and has just slightly more than an acute understanding of how political meddling can completely reverse course on a plan of action that was previously set sail upon. It would be wise to at least take this into consideration when thinking about paying for future pension obligations by raising property taxes. You could trust future mayors and future city councils to be steadfastly devoted to not Mickey Mouse future budgets. History paints a picture that is colored by mistrust however.

Think about your own self for a moment... say you had $1,000 sitting in the bank. The budget that you set yourself up 6 months ago said that $400 of that money was going to pay rent, $200 was to pay for your transportation costs, $200 was to pay for food, $50 paid your electric bill, $100 was to go into savings and the remaining $50 would go towards impressing some lady friend by taking her out to dinner... presumably you charm her enough that she wants to give you some sugar at the end of the night.  How many times in your life have you gave in to the temptation to slide that $100 that was supposed to go into savings and instead maybe blow it on booze, or a new tv... or maybe going all out and spending $350 on that debt with the buxom young woman whose smile makes you smitten with irrationality?  If you are honest with yourself, you would recall quite a few instances where you maybe didn't make the wisest of choices with your budget. If there are times when you have let yourself down regarding managing your own money... how confident are you that someone else (who has their own agendas that far different than your own) will do a better job at managing your money?

To me, having a dedicated source of revenue is a major selling point. In reality, there are no perfect options. You are basically choosing which option is the least imperfect. Would I much, much, much, much prefer that a sales tax extension goes towards infrastructure and qualify of life projects? Absolutely, unequivocably without question, yes! Does it give me pause that potential tax revenue will be shifted to pension obligations instead of a new Better Jacksonville Project? You bet your @ss it does. I want to live in a city with nicer things than what we currently have. There is no shame in admitting that.  But, at some point reality has to set in. 

Do I want to live in a city in 10 years from now where $600 of the $1,000 dollars I pay in property taxes pays for the pension while the fire station down the street from my house is closed down, the park a block over has been sold to WalMart to pay for a municipal government that's in hawk to the pawn shop owner down the street, my house gets robbed and the police show up 13 days later and I drive to work on a road that is riddled with so many potholes that I have to buy new tires every 4 months? This is a major consideration.

As to the political reality of a property tax increase... I don't see a scenario in which voters would vote for a millage rate increase of say 4-5 mills this August. I have a good feeling that people smarter than me have maybe.. just maybe done extensive polling on this issue and have come to that same conclusion.


fieldafm

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2016, 11:57:04 AM »
I neither campaigned for, nor donated money to Lenny Curry's campaign. However, I did vote for him. Making this a personal issue is ridiculous.

Based on what I understand to be true based on my own study of the pension issue... I am more apt than not to vote in favor of Curry's pension proposal in August. At this point, I'm waiting to see what the final proposal is before I make up my mind 100%.

As to your other hyperbole, its frankly not even worth responding to... you clearly have your agenda.

Quote
but this solution doesn't even pay the actual obligation

That's quite a sensational theory, but it is absolutely without merit.



I suppose i will forward your religious belief on to those idiots at the Times Union and their absurdly meritless actuarialists.

Apparently, if we continue at current funding rates we'll cover 98% of the obligationby 2045. If we follow Curry's plan, we'll be at 58% to 65% of our obligation by 2045.

From the TU, 2/18/16

http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2016-02-18/story/currys-plan-would-leave-pension-plans-only-partially-funded-after-30more on above link.

###

See my post using a pizza at a local pizza joint. Doing nothing, as the TU presupposes, would mean that a larger and larger chunk of the City's budget would go towards funding future pension obligations. The City is legally obligated to pay its retirees. So, the budget must be adjusted year over year to meet those future obligations. The only way not to do that would be to stop paying retirees (legally and ethically not prudent) or declare bankruptcy (in no way a prudent option). Over the next 10 years, the portion of spending dedicated to paying future pension obligations (the overall chunk of the pizza pie) goes from 30-35% of the budget to 60%+ of the budget.  Over the next few years, the newest pension deal struck by Brown and Gulliford (passed just before Brown left office) requires some fairly significant chunks be paid to play 'catch up' over the next few years. Without a new source of revenue, those big chunks come out of the general fund... which means even less to pay for all of the city services that are needed to pay for the operation of a healthy, growing city.   

There is a complicated relationship with some of the debt schemes that Curry's plan proposes in the short term. That's a different issue entirely, and can't be explained with neat, little pizza examples.

TheCat

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2016, 01:23:05 PM »
Let's try not to make this an unnecessarily antagonistic thread. Can we stick with ignoring anything that feels like a personal attack and just stick with a constructive conversation? Let's assume the best in each other.

mtraininjax

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2016, 02:44:12 PM »
Where are all the old posts of those who were fed a bill of goods from Brown and then his only solution was to try and raid the piggy bank at JEA? Let's be fair.

Tacachale

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2016, 02:57:38 PM »
Let's try not to make this an unnecessarily antagonistic thread. Can we stick with ignoring anything that feels like a personal attack and just stick with a constructive conversation? Let's assume the best in each other.

Totally agree. Its a bad way to discuss policy. Especially when the apparent trigger words weren't addressed to field, but rather to tacachale in the first place.
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2015-may-bill-delaney-why-im-voting-for-lenny-curry

Well, I didn't take your comments personally, but since you bring it up, I also wasn't involved in Curry's campaign, though I did support him. I wrote that article at Ennis's invitation as a small point of balance to things you and Arash had been putting on the site that supported Brown and attacked Curry.

TheCat

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2016, 03:51:46 PM »
In response to field, Tacachale and others:

1) There isn't a proposed tax increase. Curry is not being bold by suggesting a new tax. He's being bold by assuming we won't need better jacksonville plans funds for infrastructure, when this cycle is over. He's suggesting switching a dedicated pot of money to another pot. For those who love dedicated pots of money that cannot be redistributed on a political whim, you will lose that funding for infrastructure. I wish Curry was moving towards passing, by referrendum, a BJP2.

2. I guess the numbers are going to be important. Maybe, some clarification is in order because I'm not seeing how we are getting to a pension obligation that will reach 60% of our budget...not even close.

Using this link I looked up our operating revenues since 2010: http://www.coj.net/departments/finance/budget.aspx

2010: $1.06 billion
2011: $1.07 billion
2012: $1.04 billion
2013: $1.03 billion
2014: $1.07 billion
2015: $1.10 billion
2016: $1.15 billion (budgeted)

Looking at this chart from the TU (which they put together using the acturial study I linked to earlier), I'm not seeing how we're predcting the pension taking anymore than 18 percent of our operating budget.



Based on the chart this is what I am seeing:

In 2016, our pension obligation was $157 million or 13% of our budget.

Our annual obligation is expected gradually increase until we reach around $200 million in 2027, which equates to around 18% of our budget (assuming our operating revenues are at $1.10 billion - an average of the last three years).

Then, our payments gradually decrease and bounce around $150 million or 8% of our budget until 2043. In 2043 our payments drop to $50 million or .045% of our budget.

What is it that I am missing? Where is the 35% - 65% of the budget number coming from?

3. If we stick to what we are doing now, we will be 98 percent caught up and we'll have the ability to have a BJP2. If we do it Lenny's way, we're going to be paying more money in the long run, for a longer period of time and be only a little over half way in covering our oligation. This seems like a bad refinancing deal.

4. The TU is saying that we can expet $4 billion over 30 years for the pension sales tax, which works out to be $133million per year. How is this enough to cover our obligation, especially after underpaying for next 5 years. No one has said that the sales tax will be the sole source for the pension obligation. It seems possible that we may still need to pull from our operating budget.

5. The overlooked portion of this deal is

Quote

So, the solution is an accounting trick that the GASB may or may not find acceptable? Someone give me a pizza version of what's happening here?

On the whole, this plan makes 0.00 sense to me but I am open to being convinced.







« Last Edit: April 19, 2016, 05:16:28 PM by TheCat »

tufsu1

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2016, 09:38:37 PM »
Where are all the old posts of those who were fed a bill of goods from Brown and then his only solution was to try and raid the piggy bank at JEA? Let's be fair.

many of us you subscribe as Brown supporters never liked his "no new taxes" pledge

Non-RedNeck Westsider

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Re: Pension fix only issue on Mayor Lenny Curry's agenda
« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2016, 09:55:42 PM »

So, the solution is an accounting trick that the GASB may or may not find acceptable? Someone give me a pizza version of what's happening here?

On the whole, this plan makes 0.00 sense to me but I am open to being convinced.

You just guaranteed everyone a pizza on their way out, but since you don't have enough pizzas cooked for everyone, you just stack a bunch of empty boxes by the door to look like you've got plenty of pizza on hand, with the knowledge that a new pizza oven will be delivered in time to make sure everyone gets one.

Luckily your current pizza oven can cover the crowd as is, and even a bit of overflow, but you're absolutely screwed if there's any hitch before the new pizza oven gets here.

But that's OK.  In the meantime, you put in your shift (maybe a double) and you'll probably already be working at corporate to let the next crew worry about the pizza oven delivery.  You ran the promotion and made everyone happy.  You've done your part.  And you'll be able to point fingers at someone else if anything happens and people leaving don't have pizza.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2016, 11:15:11 PM by Non-RedNeck Westsider »
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