Khan's Jacksonville Shipyards Plans Revealed

[simms3]

^^^I never quoted 8 years.  Just said the halfway mark for current average will be here before we know it.  There are outliers who have owned their teams for many decades.  But the NFL as a business model has changed and evolved in the past 1-2 decades, and particularly in the past 5 years.  To see ~10 year cycles for most teams going forward would not be surprising at all.  This is more and more about seasoned business owners like Khan harvesting a bit of value in a stable, backed/sponsored operating business (and thus contributing to the sponsor, the NFL) than it is old families holding onto their legacy.

Oh the semantics games now.  You said he was at 3.5 years and nearing the half way point of NFL ownership.  So I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed you were alluding to 8 years.  Now you change it to a recent change in the last decade but yet only 3 in the past decade have new owners that did not either replace a long term owner or now own due to inheritance of the team. And the 10 year cycle going forward would,not be a surprise?  So now you are predicting the future. You just made that part up to try and make your argument.  Made up things presented as facts.  My guess happens alot.  Just an observation. 

There really are no semantics.  You are the one who made assumptions and filled in numbers.  Literally all I said is that the guy has been in Jax 3.5 years already and will be at the average tenure ownership part before we know it.  This is a 10+ year development proposal, in most cases, especially for a city of Jacksonville's size and stature.  So that implies he'll certainly be around in 10+ years, or at least transitioned from Jaguars to real estate venture, in Jacksonville.  Big bet, long term bet, on small city.  From a guy not originally from Jax, and only having been in Jax for 3.5 years through ownership of an NFL team.

You can pick around however you like.

[edjax]

^^^I never quoted 8 years.  Just said the halfway mark for current average will be here before we know it.  There are outliers who have owned their teams for many decades.  But the NFL as a business model has changed and evolved in the past 1-2 decades, and particularly in the past 5 years.  To see ~10 year cycles for most teams going forward would not be surprising at all.  This is more and more about seasoned business owners like Khan harvesting a bit of value in a stable, backed/sponsored operating business (and thus contributing to the sponsor, the NFL) than it is old families holding onto their legacy.

Oh the semantics games now.  You said he was at 3.5 years and nearing the half way point of NFL ownership.  So I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed you were alluding to 8 years.  Now you change it to a recent change in the last decade but yet only 3 in the past decade have new owners that did not either replace a long term owner or now own due to inheritance of the team. And the 10 year cycle going forward would,not be a surprise?  So now you are predicting the future. You just made that part up to try and make your argument.  Made up things presented as facts.  My guess happens alot.  Just an observation. 

There really are no semantics.  You are the one who made assumptions and filled in numbers.  Literally all I said is that the guy has been in Jax 3.5 years already and will be at the average tenure ownership part before we know it.  This is a 10+ year development proposal, in most cases, especially for a city of Jacksonville's size and stature.  So that implies he'll certainly be around in 10+ years, or at least transitioned from Jaguars to real estate venture, in Jacksonville.  Big bet, long term bet, on small city.  From a guy not originally from Jax, and only having been in Jax for 3.5 years through ownership of an NFL team.

You can pick around however you like.

Nah, you just threw something out there as fact that was not accurate.  My guess is football/sports is not your area of expertise. No biggie.

[simms3]

I concede when I'm proven wrong (see above re: football fields on buildings).  I threw out a vague comment at best that you attached specific numbers to (oddly, as if you are just scrapping to be able to prove me wrong or catch me in something, which seems a bit stalkerish), and so you filled in some blanks that were hardly blanks and then you say you proved me wrong in something.  What exactly?

Football/sports is by far not my expertise, nor my interest.  Underwriting an EBITDA stream and understanding basic fundamentals of finance is.  Where's your expertise in any of this?  Is it real estate or finance?  Is it "sports/football"?  Or is it none of the above?

I keep most of my comments pretty high level and off the cuff for a reason.  You're the nit here looking desperate for some sort of intense granular debate.

[edjax]

I concede when I'm proven wrong (see above re: football fields on buildings).  I threw out a vague comment at best that you attached specific numbers to (oddly, as if you are just scrapping to be able to prove me wrong or catch me in something, which seems a bit stalkerish), and so you filled in some blanks that were hardly blanks and then you say you proved me wrong in something.  What exactly?

Football/sports is by far not my expertise, nor my interest.  Underwriting an EBITDA stream and understanding basic fundamentals of finance is.  Where's your expertise in any of this?  Is it real estate or finance?  Is it "sports/football"?  Or is it none of the above?

I keep most of my comments pretty high level and off the cuff for a reason.  You're the nit here looking desperate for some sort of intense granular debate.

Calm down Nancy.  My point is you threw out a comment as fact.  You had no clue what the average ownership of an NFL team is.  So now I just wonder what else you do this for.  Nothing more than that. And no I am not an expert in these fields but I don't try to pass myself off as one either. Just because you are knowledgable of something doesn't mean your really all that good at the profession.   Bottom line is your general attitude is the turn off to ME, so I personally tend to read your comments with a grain of salt. So enough of this back and forth.  You can get back to simply providing your knowledgable expertise on this crappy proposal.

[KenFSU]

If anyone has only seen the two and a half minute Vimeo video, the full 20 minute presentation from today is well worth taking the time to watch:

http://www.jaguars.com/media-gallery/videos/State-of-the-Jaguars-Shipyards/041b43c7-acbf-48b5-b93a-79c7d238555f

[Apache]

Let's not pick on Simms too much ($100 san fran haircuts anyone?)

He does have knowledge apparently, verified by others on this site. Most of it's above my head, but hey...

Not to mention, the first thing I do personally when I have a new idea for my business, is have someone else try to shoot holes in it.
Thats all he's doing. Take it for what it is. Some will be accurate, some will be nitpicking.

He could have thicker skin though considering his acknowledged stressful job.

Personally I think, if you can't see what Khan has invested in the city and team (while already making the team much more profitable...where it is now...in Jacksonville) then I think you are trying not to see it.

Maybe this first proposal is low budget to the experts. Sure looks sharp to us lemmings.

I have more faith in Khan, from what I've seen him do and what I've read about him doing, to get something like this done than any other proposal for the site going back a long time. And it most certainly will benefit his business (the team) and our city.

[thelakelander]

My guess is once feasibility studies, market research and due diligence are performed, conceptual plans will change....

Feasibility studies, market research and due diligence by Iguana Investments and the city of Jacksonville will be conducted to determine the specific types of development that would be thrive long-term at the Shipyards.

Representatives from Iguana Investments will deliver a proposal to the Downtown Investment Authority next Monday.

Full article: http://www.news4jax.com/news/shad-khan-unveils-vision-for-shipyards-development/31315240

[southsider1015]

My guess is once feasibility studies, market research and due diligence are performed, conceptual plans will change....

Feasibility studies, market research and due diligence by Iguana Investments and the city of Jacksonville will be conducted to determine the specific types of development that would be thrive long-term at the Shipyards.

Representatives from Iguana Investments will deliver a proposal to the Downtown Investment Authority next Monday.

Full article: http://www.news4jax.com/news/shad-khan-unveils-vision-for-shipyards-development/31315240

Agreed.  Why even have a press release if it's all subject to change based on actual research?

Meh.  I'll believe it when the shovels start to turn

[copperfiend]

Also, Khan, the man himself, is no real estate man.  No engineer.  No architect.  He does have the money to hire the best, though.  It would appear he has not done so.

He is an engineer.

[I-10east]

This thread has been very interesting to say the least. Thanks to Simms usual 'Devil's Advocate' takes. I'm a Devil's Advocate guy myself, usually with a centralized/positive stance, rather than mostly everything is doomsday outside of Frisco like how Simms roll.

My main negative is the South Florida-ized styling of the proposal, mostly done with all of those freaking palm trees. There are other trees beside palms, which is the worst tree for shade BTW. I noticed in the proposal that it mentioned 'tropical weather' which isn't compatible with Jax. I understand that Khan lives in S Florida, but I rather see Jax emphasize on it's local influences rather than becoming "Anywhere South Florida". Also I have concerns about the ever present whining elderly crowd across the river (with the amphitheater and all). Otherwise this proposal is very stunning, and far as I'm concerned, lets get the shovels dug in already!!

[simms3]

After hearing the presentation, I'm a bit warmed up.  I think the Populous rep sounded a little cliche/sound-bitey, however, the presentation had a few high notes and presented a little bit of a clearer resolution/alternative views.

But as was sort of my whole point of my original comment on this, most of this is not feasible or realistic as-is, particularly for Jacksonville (and some just doesn't look all that thought out, let alone fully baked).  I would rather see change within the city to really open the Shipyards up to smaller scale development.  I would rather massing studies and due diligence on highest/best use come first, THEN preliminary renderings that respond to what's actually possible.

The Giants, Warriors, and potentially the Raiders and/or A's all have similar scale developments proposed.  These things, even in a hot city, albeit a highly politically charged one, take many many years to shake out.  Like 10-20 years.  This is the kind of project that benefits from taking on some sort of partnership between a large hedge fund and a large Chinese capital source in a large city, with a debt stack of several buckets and several layers of public/private financing.  The kind of scale we're talking about for Jacksonville, and given Jacksonville's market AND absolute lack of city leadership to guide it through, are seemingly impossibly barriers.

And, what's still baffling me is that there is no questioning or push back.  The only 2 types of comments I've seen (here or on that Jaguars.com or News4Jax) are: "focus on the Jaguars first" or "yes, build it, beautiful, perfect".  Lack of any sort of meaningful/positive development in Jax over the prior decade is no excuse to allow for free reign or to fawn over what could be PR proposals.  This is a shrewd man who if he were going to build something like that, he would ensure there is a large public financing component (some parties involved would likely require it...and Khan isn't leaving the Jaguars Top Co as a guarantor to a risky real estate development...this would be Khan personal balance sheet), so all of your paychecks are on the line here.  Be more invested than "Yes!  Wonderful!"

[iMarvin]

1) I also thought the hot-air balloon was pretty random.

2) I like the palm trees and riverwalk. There aren't enough palm trees in Jacksonville imo. This is Florida; it doesn't have to be South Florida for there to be a bunch of palm trees in one place.

3) I don't really like the architecture but I'm sure that can change.

4) I was hoping for a bigger landmark attraction than just the USS Adams (Ferris wheel, aquarium, etc.) but oh well. Maybe Metro Park will get one.

5) I wish the buildings were taller. Any mention on the number of units/square feet?

6) No mention of the Skyway? It seems like a no-brainer to try to connect it here now.

I didn't love the proposal, but it's nice to see someone do more than just talk.

[Cheshire Cat]

Ennis, I have not kept up on this the way you have but I think I recall you once mentioning that the Shipyards is not something that is interfaced directly with downtown.  This project sure looks flashy that much is true but something about it is uncomfortable to me.  It is so not Jacksonville or N.E. Florida.  I like exciting and dramatic projects and am thrilled that the Shipyards may be made viable but why must Jacksonville always get distracted by shiny objects? lol  Just not particularly in love with this idea, it doesn't feel right as if it belongs with the other big failed projects in Dubai or China.  But hey, at least it is a positive start after a dry period and years worth of empty promises.  My first thoughts were about how this would interface with a downtown focused on the re-use of historic structures and my next thought was that palm trees are not shade trees and all of those open walkways are going to be some kinda hot in the summer.  I hope Khan's people follow this site though because those doing the designing have no idea of how this is going to interface in a meaning full way with downtown to my view.  Just my initial thoughts along with the realization that the taxpayers are going to be paying a major part of the tab regarding this vision.  Khan leverages his money.  I wonder what the actual working of a deal he has going might be?  I can tell you his support of Alvin Brown means Brown in on the same page with Khan and whatever he proposes. 

[Josh]

The News4Jax article states the aquarium is still planned for "somewhere off Bay Street." Unless they plan on working it into these renders, it sounds like they're gonna boot it from the riverfront.

[simms3]

He is in fact an engineer.

Also, Khan, the man himself, is no real estate man.  No engineer.  No architect.  He does have the money to hire the best, though.  It would appear he has not done so.

He is an engineer.

Thanks, proven wrong again.

So then I guess he's willing to pay for the complex engineering required of the as-proposed project.  Raised buildings over fill on soft sediment complete with tricky and strong currents.  Adding more fill.  Raised, curved cable-stayed bridges.  It's grandiose.  Hope he pulls it off!  Just shoring up these piers will be expensive.  The Warriors passed on doing an arena on a pier in SF partially because the costs to refurbish the pier, seismically retrofit, AND then build something on top came out $150-$200M.  Adjust for Jax pricing and it's still an expensive endeavor that equates to a requirement for higher rents for office/apartments, higher rates for the hotel, higher condo pricing that needs to be achieved.

Once everything is diligenced out and potentially value-engineered to the bone, I sincerely hope everyone's dreams aren't totally deflated.  Past Monday we may not see anything more on this for another couple of years.